Abstract:
Let X(k)=X(u,k), k=0,1,…, be a time-homogeneous real-valued ergodic Markov chain with initial value u≡X(u,0)=X(0). We study the asymptotic behavior of the crossing probability of a given boundary g(k), k=0,1,…,n, by a trajectory X(k),
P{maxk⩽n(X(k)−g(k))>0},
where the boundary g depends, generally speaking, on n and a growing parameter x in such a way that mink⩽ng(k)→∞ as x→∞. It is assumed that the distributions of the increments ξ(u)=X(u,1)−u of the chain either have regularly varying tails or are majorized by such tails.
Limit theorems are obtained, describing the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities in question, under broad conditions in the domains of large and normal deviations, including theorems valid “uniformly on the real line,” and giving explicit forms of the right-hand sides. Asymptotic properties of the regeneration cycles to a positive atom are investigated for Harris recurrent Markov chains. An analogue of the law of the iterated logarithm is established.
Keywords:
Markov chains, large deviations, boundary crossing, heavy tail, law of iterated logarithm, uniform limit theorem.
Citation:
A. A. Borovkov, “Asymptotics of crossing probability of a boundary by the trajectory of a Markov chain. Heavy tails of jumps”, Teor. Veroyatnost. i Primenen., 47:4 (2002), 625–653; Theory Probab. Appl., 47:4 (2003), 584–608
\Bibitem{Bor02}
\by A.~A.~Borovkov
\paper Asymptotics of crossing probability of a boundary by the trajectory of a Markov chain. Heavy tails of jumps
\jour Teor. Veroyatnost. i Primenen.
\yr 2002
\vol 47
\issue 4
\pages 625--653
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/tvp3772}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.4213/tvp3772}
\mathscinet{http://mathscinet.ams.org/mathscinet-getitem?mr=2001783}
\zmath{https://zbmath.org/?q=an:1069.60057}
\transl
\jour Theory Probab. Appl.
\yr 2003
\vol 47
\issue 4
\pages 584--608
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.1137/S0040585X97979986}
\isi{https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=Publons&SrcAuth=Publons_CEL&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=000187495600002}
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/tvp3772
https://doi.org/10.4213/tvp3772
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/tvp/v47/i4/p625
This publication is cited in the following 3 articles:
F. G. Ragimov, F. D. Azizov, “The limit theorems for first passage time of Markov chain for nonlinear boundary”, Theory Probab. Appl., 57:1 (2013), 172–178
V. R. Fatalov, “Large deviations for distributions of sums of random variables: Markov chain method”, Problems Inform. Transmission, 46:2 (2010), 160–183
A. A. Borovkov, “Asymptotics of crossing probability of a boundary by the trajectory of a Markov chain. Exponentially decaying tails”, Theory Probab. Appl., 48:2 (2004), 226–242