Abstract:
Let B=(Bt)0⩽t⩽1 be the standard Brownian motion started at 0, and let St=max for 0 \le t \le 1. Consider the optimal stopping problem V_*=\inf_\tau{\mathsf E}(B_\tau-S_1)^2,
where the infimum is taken over all stopping times of B satisfying 0 \le \tau \le 1. We show that the infimum is attained at the stopping time \tau_*=\inf\{0\le t\le 1\mid S_t-B_t\ge z_*\sqrt{1-t}\}, where z_*=1.12 \ldots is a unique root of the equation 4\Phi(z_*)-2z_*\varphi(z_*)-3=0 with \varphi(x)=(1/\sqrt{2 \pi })\,e^{-x^2/2} and \Phi (x)=\int_{-\infty}^x \varphi(y) dy. The value V_* equals 2 \Phi (z_*)-1. The method of proof relies upon a stochastic integral representation of S_1, time-change arguments, and the solution of a free-boundary (Stefan) problem.
Citation:
S. E. Graversen, G. Peskir, A. N. Shiryaev, “Stopping Brownian motion without anticipation as close as possible to its ultimate maximum”, Teor. Veroyatnost. i Primenen., 45:1 (2000), 125–136; Theory Probab. Appl., 45:1 (2001), 41–50