Abstract:
The problem of optimal forecasting of environmental changes induced by various factors is discussed. The proposed technique is based on variational principles and methods of the sensitivity theory with allowance for uncertainties in mathematical models and input data. Optimal forecasting is understood as forecasting where the estimates of cost functionals are independent of variations of the sought state functions. In addition to state functions, the forecasted characteristics include risk and vulnerability functions for receptor areas and quantification of uncertainties.
Keywords:
optimal forecasting, mathematical modeling, quality of environment, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, convection, diffusion, and reaction equations.
Citation:
V. V. Penenko, E. A. Tsvetova, “Optimal forecasting of natural processes with uncertainty assessment”, Prikl. Mekh. Tekh. Fiz., 50:2 (2009), 156–166; J. Appl. Mech. Tech. Phys., 50:2 (2009), 300–308
This publication is cited in the following 3 articles:
E. N. Musakaev, S. P. Rodionov, D. Y. Legostaev, V. P. Kosyakov, HIGH-ENERGY PROCESSES IN CONDENSED MATTER (HEPCM 2019): Proceedings of the XXVI Conference on High-Energy Processes in Condensed Matter, dedicated to the 150th anniversary of the birth of S.A. Chaplygin, 2125, HIGH-ENERGY PROCESSES IN CONDENSED MATTER (HEPCM 2019): Proceedings of the XXVI Conference on High-Energy Processes in Condensed Matter, dedicated to the 150th anniversary of the birth of S.A. Chaplygin, 2019, 030113
Oleg A. Romanovskii, Vladimir V. Penenko, Elena A. Tsvetova, 20th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics, 9292, 20th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics, 2014, 929245
Vladimir Penenko, Alexander Baklanov, Elena Tsvetova, Alexander Mahura, “Direct and Inverse Problems in a Variational Concept of Environmental Modeling”, Pure Appl. Geophys., 169:3 (2012), 447
Citation in format AMSBIB
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